Bonnie's Blog: Hollywood News and Market Info.

RISMEDIA, July 14, 2008-Amidst the gloom on Wall Street about housing someone forgot to check the stats. The National Association of Realtors® has now reported four straight months of rising housing prices, but it seems no one is listening.

According to NAR statistics, the median home price has fallen from a high of $230,200 in July 2006 to a low in February 2008 at $195,600, a drop of 15%. Since February, however, it has risen steadily every month. By May the index (which will be revised on July 24) had risen to $208,600, up $13,000 and a full 6.6%. Another indicator, the mean home price (otherwise known as the average home price), has also shown strength and has risen from a low of $242,000 also in February of this year to $253,100, a rise of $11,100 or 4.5%. It, too, has risen every month since February of this year.

“I just don’t know where Wall Street’s brains are today,” said David Michonski, CEO of Coldwell Banker Hunt Kennedy in New York City. “Everyone on the Street is wringing their hands over housing when in fact the average American has been out this spring buying homes and pushing the median price higher. This has got to go down as one of Wall Street and Main Street’s biggest disconnects in history.”

In addition, on an annualized basis the volume of home sales has also risen somewhat from a low of 4,890,000 homes in January to 4,990,000 in May.

“Rising prices on expanding volume should not a crisis make on Wall Street,” says Michonski.

So why the crisis?

“They say that there are bulls and bears on Wall Street but there are also pigs. Pigs try not just to profit from a crisis but create one to profit from. Today there are just so many people who have positioned themselves to profit from a crisis that they refuse to admit the reality of what is happening on Main Street. It might hurt their positions.”

Is this the bottom?

“No one can know for sure, but the hard data is clear. The median price has risen four straight months. The average American is out there taking advantage of bargains in their local real estate market. They are not listening to Wall Street but following their own belief that the best time to buy is when no one else is, and they are out there buying. If this keeps up, February may prove to have been the low in prices.”

“It is possible that it will not be Hank Paulson or Ben Bernanke who will pull this country out of a housing recession, but the good common sense of the average American whose affordability to buy a home is at a five year high and is acting on it.”

RISMedia welcomes your questions and comments. Send your e-mail to: realestatemagazinefeedback@rismedia.com.

hen in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.

I WANT TO HONOR GOOD CUSTOMER SERVICE!!... I don't know why but I hear it everywhere I go ... complaints about the service in South Florida.  So I thought I would start a little monthly posting session on a vendor, business or person that stands out above the rest.

Last month I called upon Quality Table Pads to come to my home, measure my oversized (and odd shaped) dining room table and to make a plush table pad.   Not only did they come out the next day, I received my table pad within 2 weeks and it was the exact size... perfectly measured.. (I have a weird size table where the edges curve outward) 

Friendly people, great service and another satisfied customer.  (and a great price too!)

Keep them in mind if you want to protect your table from spills, hot items etc., and order in advance for the upcoming Holiday Season.... big family dinners etc.

Call Dave Kessler at: (305)322-5779

Quality Table Pads - Corp office in N. Miami Beach

Serving Dade, Broward and the Palm Beaches

I ordered the thick black with the black velvet underneath.

(currently flipped open for demonstration purposes)

 Check out the variety of colors:

Mahogany	Blonde Woodgrain	Tan Woodgrain
Antique Brown	Black	Brown Woodgrain
Chocolate Woodgrain	Oak	Sandalwood
Walnut	White Crush	White Woodgrain

Back to Real Estate news tomorrow....

Don't forget my WEEKEND OPEN HOUSES at FOREST VIEW ESTATES....(Corner of Stirling Rd and SW 35th Ave) from 2-5 on Saturdays and 1-5 on Sundays!!

www.HousesInEmeraldHIlls.com

www.HomesInHollywoodFlorida.com

Bonnie

Hi to my loyal Blog readers.....

In the last 30 days, 3,592 people have visited my blog.  Holy moly... that's alot.  I love that.  And I love you for reading....BUT not one has posted a comment, written to me, let me know what you enjoy reading about.   I want to know Who you are... I'd love it if you asked a question....  we don't need to meet, we don't need to work together.  I want to be here as the area expert to answer your questions... offer opinion and assistance.  No strings attached.

Back again soon.   AND Drop me a line sometime!!!!

Bonnie

HousesInEmeraldHills.com

HomesInHollywoodFlorida.com

BonnieKaufman.com

954-985-8336

Bonnie@BonnieKaufman.com

Just wanted to get online and let you all know that Hollywood is HOT.  This IS the area people want to live in.  With prices finally leveling off, interest rates still good, and BLACKJACK at the Hard Rock..people are moving in.

In Emerald Hills alone this month 5 houses went under contract.   That actually may not sound like a lot, but consider that from January through March, only 1 house sold.  Here we have 5 in one month and the buyers are out like busy bees, hopping from one great home to another.

Here are the Emerald Hills stats as of today: (all stats are based on Single family only...for condo and townhome info please call or email me)

Currently 41 homes on the market ranging from $1,598,000 down to a mere $360,000.   Wow..that's a steal for Emerald Hills... but not if you consider the most recent sale of $260,000 for a 3/2 home with a 2 car garage and Pool.  Now THAT is a REAL STEAL in Emerald Hills.  Lucky buyer on 44th Avenue!!

A 5 bedroom, 4 bath home with over 3,500 sq feet sold this month for $700,000.  Wow.... On 34th Street.

In Hollywood Hills the homes are being scooped up before buyers can get their offers in. 

20 Hollywood Hills homes CLOSED in the last 2 months

20 Homes went under contract and are PENDING this month!!

There are 160 homes for sale in Hollywood Hills (from Hollywood Blvd to Sheridan Street) ranging in price from $595,000 to as low as $179,000 for a 3/2...single family home.

Even the media is hip to the fact that the market is UP!

If you are thinking of selling, please call me  for a free Pre-Listing Packet and DVD "Pricing your home to sell".

If you are looking for a new home, call and ask about our CASH BACK Buyer reward program!

Please post a comment! Let me know what you want to read about or any feedback or question about the area.

Please come see me at FOREST VIEW ESTATES (the corner of Stirling Rd and SW 35th Avenue)every Saturday and Sunday from 1-5pm and check out Hollywood's Newest community.  Gated Luxury Homes starting at only $699,000 for a 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom, upscale home with marble flooring, impact resistant windows, top-of-line kitchen and baths...  Pools available on specific lots!!

Bonnie!

www.HomesInHollywoodFlorida.com

www.HousesInEmeraldHills.com

The Housing Bust Is Over
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

Don't believe all the gloom and doom you read...
The U.S. housing bust may be just about over. We should be darn close to the bottom... possibly within one year of it.
You probably don't believe me. That's okay. I'm used to being the contrarian – it's a position I prefer to be in actually. But bear with me, and at least hear me out...
Today, I'll share with you two simple facts that explain where we are now in housing and why we could be close to the bottom. Let's get right to it...
1) Houses are affordable again.
You may be flabbergasted to hear this... But U.S. houses are affordable again.
Since last summer, the change has been extraordinary. The typical mortgage payment on the typical home in America now is 20% cheaper than it was less than a year ago. Let me explain:
Last July, the median U.S. home would have cost you about $230,000. And you'd have paid about 7% in interest on your mortgage. So that's a $1,200 monthly mortgage payment on that house (assuming a 20% down payment).
Today, the median home price is $200,000 – a $30,000 difference from last summer. And mortgage rates are down to 6%.
Between the lower price and the lower mortgage rate, you'd be paying less than $1,000 a month on your mortgage now – for the same house that would have cost you $1,200 last summer!
Most people shop for homes based on their mortgage payment... They ask, "How much can I afford each month?" And then they look for homes that will give them a payment they can afford.
So the big question is: Can the typical household afford the typical mortgage payments on a typical home? Last summer, the answer was no. But now, the answer is yes. Take a look:

Already? Yes! Houses are affordable again...

2) We've paid our dues, pricewise.

Have we paid our dues yet? 

Cycles happen. You can see it easily in this chart. You can also see in 2005, prices ran farther above trend than any time in history. And now, in 2008, prices have fallen farther below trend than any time in history.

What's new this past week?

In our RE area, Hollywood Hills, Emerald Hills, Oakridge, Mapleridge, Hollywood Oaks, Forest View Estates, and in between.......

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES ONLY/Past 7 days

New Listings:  17

Under Contract: 6

Closed Sales: 10

Expired or off market: 21

Price Reductions: 34

How many homes are for sale?

In Emerald Hills, which includes the Lakes and West & East of 46th Avenue there are currently 66 homes for sale!!!!  Lots of competition.

In Hollywood Hills, from Hollywood Blvd to Sheridan St, from 56th Ave to I-95....are you ready for this number?    There are 179 homes for sale!!   Wow.... ranging from the high $100's (which are few) up to almost $600,000.  The average asking price of a Hollywood Hills home these days in about $265,000.

To find out about market info on condo's and townhomes don't hesitate to email me at Bonnie@BonnieKaufman.com, or call directly (954)985-8336.

We are your Hollywood Real Estate Specialists...

Hi Hollywood:

I'm so excited to share with you that the developer of the new homes on the corner of Stirling Rd and SW 35th Ave (GLOBAL)has hired me and my group of exceptional realtors to market their fabulous homes for sale at FOREST VIEW ESTATES!!!

Currently finishing Phase I of this gated community which will consist of 31 homes, there are three models available, ranging from 2,800 square feet under air up to 4,200 sq feet under air.

The developer has spared no expense in building these luxury homes... including marble flooring, impact resistant windows and doors, crown molding, stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and European style cabinetry in the kitchen and all baths, double height volume ceilings in the living/dining area and much more.

Prices starting at only $750,000 for a fabulous top-of-the line brand new home.  Exceptional value in today's market!!!

We are offering private tours every weekday from 11-5pm and are open Saturdays and Sundays  from 1-5pm.  For additional information or to set up a personal tour, please call my office at (954)985-8336.    Check out the property pictures below:

Living room/dining room view from top of stairs

Kitchen

Master Bathroom

As always please feel free to contact me directly regarding any listed property at Bonnie@BonnieKaufman.com.

I welcome your input, feedback, comments and suggestions.

www.HousesInEmeraldHills.com

www.HomesInHollywoodFlorida.com

Call us for all of your South Florida Real Estate needs.  We specialize in all of Hollywood, with an emphasis on Emerald Hills, Hollywood Hills, Hollywood Oaks, and Forest View Estates.

Have a great night!

Reflect, respect  The Boston Globe

The Housing Crisis Is Over

By CYRIL MOULLE-BERTEAUX
May 6, 2008; Page A23

The dire headlines coming fast and furious in the financial and popular press suggest that the housing crisis is intensifying. Yet it is very likely that April 2008 will mark the bottom of the U.S. housing market. Yes, the housing market is bottoming right now.

How can this be? For starters, a bottom does not mean that prices are about to return to the heady days of 2005. That probably won't happen for another 15 years. It just means that the trend is no longer getting worse, which is the critical factor.

Most people forget that the current housing bust is nearly three years old. Home sales peaked in July 2005. New home sales are down a staggering 63% from peak levels of 1.4 million. Housing starts have fallen more than 50% and, adjusted for population growth, are back to the trough levels of 1982.

Furthermore, residential construction is close to 15-year lows at 3.8% of GDP; by the fourth quarter of this year, it will probably hit the lowest level ever. So what's going to stop the housing decline? Very simply, the same thing that caused the bust: affordability.

The boom made housing unaffordable for many American families, especially first-time home buyers. During the 1990s and early 2000s, it took 19% of average monthly income to service a conforming mortgage on the average home purchased. By 2005 and 2006, it was absorbing 25% of monthly income. For first time buyers, it went from 29% of income to 37%. That just proved to be too much.

Prices got so high that people who intended to actually live in the houses they purchased (as opposed to speculators) stopped buying. This caused the bubble to burst.

Since then, house prices have fallen 10%-15%, while incomes have kept growing (albeit more slowly recently) and mortgage rates have come down 70 basis points from their highs. As a result, it now takes 19% of monthly income for the average home buyer, and 31% of monthly income for the first-time home buyer, to purchase a house. In other words, homes on average are back to being as affordable as during the best of times in the 1990s. Numerous households that had been priced out of the market can now afford to get in.

The next question is: Even if home sales pick up, how can home prices stop falling with so many houses vacant and unsold? The flip but true answer: because they always do.

In the past five major housing market corrections (and there were some big ones, such as in the early 1980s when home sales also fell by 50%-60% and prices fell 12%-15% in real terms), every time home sales bottomed, the pace of house-price declines halved within one or two months.

The explanation is that by the time home sales stop declining, inventories of unsold homes have usually already started falling in absolute terms and begin to peak out in "months of supply" terms. That's the case right now: New home inventories peaked at 598,000 homes in July 2006, and stand at 482,000 homes as of the end of March. This inventory is equivalent to 11 months of supply, a 25-year high – but it is similar to 1974, 1982 and 1991 levels, which saw a subsequent slowing in home-price declines within the next six months.

Inventories are declining because construction activity has been falling for such a long time that home completions are now just about undershooting new home sales. In a few months, completions of new homes for sale could be undershooting new home sales by 50,000-100,000 annually.

Inventories will drop even faster to 400,000 – or seven months of supply – by the end of 2008. This shift in inventories will have a significant impact on prices, although house prices won't stop falling entirely until inventories reach five months of supply sometime in 2009. A five-month supply has historically signaled tightness in the housing market.

Many pundits claim that house prices need to fall another 30% to bring them back in line with where they've been historically. This is usually based on an analysis of house prices adjusted for inflation: Real house prices are 30% above their 40-year, inflation-adjusted average, so they must fall 30%. This simplistic analysis is appealing on the surface, but is flawed for a variety of reasons.

Most importantly, it neglects the fact that a great majority of Americans buy their houses with mortgages. And if one buys a house with a mortgage, the most important factor in deciding what to pay for the house is how much of one's income is required to be able to make the mortgage payments on the house. Today the rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is 5.7%. Back in 1981, the rate hit 18.5%. Comparing today's house prices to the 1970s or 1980s, when mortgage rates were stratospheric, is misguided and misleading.

This is all good news for the broader economy. The housing bust has been subtracting a full percentage point from GDP for almost two years now, which is very large for a sector that represents less than 5% of economic activity.

When the rate of house-price declines halves, there will be a wholesale shift in markets' perceptions. All of a sudden, the expected value of the collateral (i.e. houses) for much of the lending that went on for the past decade will change. Right now, when valuing the collateral, market participants including banks are extrapolating the current pace of house price declines for another two to three years; this has a significant impact on the amount of delinquencies, foreclosures and credit losses that lenders are expected to face.

More home sales and smaller price declines means fewer homeowners will be underwater on their mortgages. They will thus have less incentive to walk away and opt for foreclosure.

A milder house-price decline scenario could lead to increases in the market value of a lot of the securitized mortgages that have been responsible for $300 billion of write-downs in the past year. Even if write-backs do not occur, stabilizing collateral values will have a huge impact on the markets' perception of risk related to housing, the financial system, and the economy.

We are of course experiencing a serious housing bust, with serious economic consequences that are still unfolding. The odds are that the reverberations will lead to subtrend growth for a couple of years. Nonetheless, housing led us into this credit crisis and this recession. It is likely to lead us out. And that process is underway, right now.

Mr. Moulle-Berteaux is managing partner of Traxis Partners LP, a hedge fund firm based in New York.

Hi Emerald Hills:

Do you know your Real Estate Market?   I do!! and here are some staggering changes in the last month!!

There are currently 60 homes for sale in Emerald Hills including the Lakes of Emerald Hills.

Prices are ranging from as low as $324,000 up to as much as $1,799,999.   A home just went under contract for...... are you sitting down???   $239,900 on N. 44th Avenue.  Yes it was bank owned but still.... $239,900 in EMERALD HILLS? 

13 if the current listed homes are under $425,000 including a few 4 bedroom, 3 bath homes with 2 car garages AND pools!

There are 16 homes FOR RENT!  Rentals for single family homes in Emerald Hills range from $2,400  up to $4,000.  Although there is one for $6,000 per mo.

Don't shoot me... I'm just the messenger.... but there is good news.   Buyers are out shopping.  Our two recent open houses brought about 8-10 buyers which is a big number for a 2.5 hour span.  

If you have a 3 bedroom home and want to sell consider your audience... the first time home buyer, the young couple starting a family, the person wanting to move from the FAIRWAYS into a single family home.    There is an audience and a buyer for every home.   Right now, for the buyer, it's all about price!

Now is the time to sell, market, find your buyer.   People want to move before the new school year starts.  Check out my seller tips on the home page of my site at:

www.HousesInEmeraldHills.com

If you have a question on a particular home or know of anyone thinking of buying and selling please don't hesitate to refer them to me.   We treat all of our clients like family and market every home like it's our own!

Tomorrow I'll unveil my new CASH BACK BUYER LOYALTY PROGRAM!!  Check back.

Bonnie

Hey Everyone!!! Long time, not talk!!  Sorry about that.. I've been very busy with buyers, sellers and even developers...   I wanted to take a few minutes to give you a real overview of the market based on TrendGraphix the local MLS has provided for MARCH of 2008...

In zip codes 33021 and 33312 which runs from Pembroke Rd to Griffin Rd, from 441 to I-95 in all price ranges for SINGLE FAMILY ONLY (no condo's townhomes or villa's) there are:

ALL PRICEPOINTS---

769 Homes for sale   769!!!!!   And keep in mind the AVERAGE buyer who wants to live in Hollywood will explore all the options open to them, including homes for sale near Memorial Hospital and compare them to Homes for Sale near Griffin Rd in newer communities with manned gates such as Oakridgeand Mapleridge.   So you have a lot of competition if you want to sell.   But chin up!!! homes ARE selling...Of those 769 homes for sale.... 39 sold and 18 went under contract.   And based on Closed sales there are over 3 years worth of inventory on the market.

Average ASKING PRICE is $344,000

Average Sold price is $265,000

Average Days on Market is 119

Average Price per square foot sold is $167.00

$500,000 - $999,999 Pricepoint:

To update those of you in a higher priced bracket, of those 769 homes for sale in March of 2008, 71 of them were priced between $500,000 and $999,999.   71 is still a very big number of homes to compete with if you want to move.  You must be priced right to get the traffic in to even get an offer...!!!

Of those 71 higher priced homes for sale in March, only 1 closed and only 1 went under contract. 

Average price per sq foot sold was $175.00 down from $233.00 in February, and $246.00 per sq foot in January. 

Average SOLD price of homes for sale between $500,000 - $999,999 was only $500,000, but my listing was the only one to sell in that bracket in March for $500,000.

TrendGraphix indicates that based on only 1 sale in March, and 1 sale in February in this price range, there are 71 months worth of inventory!!!  ALMOST 6 years of inventory in the higher priced tier.   

I give you all of this data merely to point out how very important price is to getting your home sold.  You MUST be priced at or below market value to get seen.  And your home MUST be in tip top shape or you will start to get offers that are up to $100,000 lower than asking as buyers try to calculate costs to repair/remodel.  

Many of you out there may not want to sell for what you must sell for to actually move.  Many of you may want to consider Staying.  But if you want to go, you need to do what it takes and that is price your home right, and make it the prettiest home you can within your means.   Hey.. maybe I need to post a list of inexpensive ways to stage your home!!!   

Happy Friday!!! and great weekend to al!!

OPEN HOUSES THIS WEEKEND:

5800 SW 36th Terrace   A fabulous 3 bedroom, 2 bath on a 14,000 square foot lot!!  Renovated and updated with all the bells and whistles...  Open from 2:30 - 5!!

20705 NE 9th Ct - North Miami Beach - Aventura Area - 5 bedroom, 3 bath corner lot with a pool, hurricane shutters and more.   Open 3-5!!

Hope to see you there!

For info on Homes in South Florida, please contact me at bonnie@BonnieKaufman.com or check out our websites at:

www.HomesInHollywoodFlorida.com

www.HousesInEmeraldHills.com

Of those,